Surging NZ inflation – RBNZ expected to hike at least another 7 times

The data is here:

New Zealand Q4 2021 CPI 1.4% q/q ( expected 1.3%)

An expectation for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting on February 23 – risk of +50bps

Commentary now along similar lines from Kiwi Bank:

  • The details of the report show a broad-based surge in consumer prices, with almost all groups posting decent gains. The growing strength in domestic inflation however is most worrying. Cost pressures will persist and may even be exacerbated by Omicron. The inflation rate is expected to remain elevated.
  • Inflation is now knocking on the door of being over twice the top of the RBNZ’s target band. And we don’t think inflation has yet peaked. We expect the RBNZ to keep up the pace, lifting the cash rate at least another seven times to 2.5% by mid-2023. The next hike is due in February

NZD is dropping (it fell after the FOMC and is back testing its overnight low:

nzd chart  27 January 2022

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