Reuters poll shows ECB expected to hike in 2024, with the risk of earlier

Reuters polling of analysts on what to expect from the European Central Bank 

  • the consensus pointed to no rate rise through to the end of 2023
  • nearly 90% of economists who responded to an additional question, 35 of 40, said the risk was it comes earlier than expected

This comment is a summary of expectations:

  • “Our baseline forecast is for the ECB to remain on hold through 2024, based on our assessment inflation is indeed transitory, and the expectations the ECB will continue to see it as such,” said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank.
  • “But against the backdrop of higher inflation uncertainty, this does skew risks to an earlier move. That said, we consider current market pricing of a rate hike next year as excessive.”

The ECB seems well behind other DM central banks (BoC, BoE, Fed … RBNZ already on the move) on tightening. Vying with the RBA for last place (OK … BOJ appears to be forever last but apart from them). 

Reuters polling of analysts on what to expect from the European Central Bank 

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