RBNZ Shadow Board is overwhelmingly calling for a tightening in monetary policy

Coming up in NZ this week – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet on Wednesday November 24. 

  • Monetary Policy Statement is due at 0100 GMT
  • and the Media Conference will follow

Earlier previews are here:The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a ‘shadow board’ of analysts. The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will happen, but what they think should happen. 

In Brief:

  • The latest Consumers Price Index (CPI) showed annual CPI reaching 4.9 percent for the year to September 2021, with indications of a further lift over the coming year. Meanwhile, extremely loose monetary policy has encouraged borrowing and pushed up asset prices, including housing. Although there remains some uncertainty over how the COVID-19 outbreak will evolve, the risk of these intense inflation pressures becoming entrenched and persisting throughout the years underpins the Shadow Board’s calls for a tightening in monetary policy.

The RBNZ cash rate since the beginning of the pandemic:

Coming up in NZ this week - the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet on Wednesday November 24. 

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