RBNZ rate hike coming up today, 25bps is baked in but some look for 50bps

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Statement is due at 0100 GMT. A cash rate hike of 25bps is widely expected, with some expecting 50bps. Previews:

Following at 0200 GMT is RBNZ Governor Orr’s press conference.

Comments from BNZ on the likelihood of a 50bp hike (nope):

  • Almost all surveyed economists are picking a 25bps hike in the OCR to 0.75% and that looks like the better bet. 
  • Most would agree that a larger move is possible, but given the extent of economic uncertainty as COVID19 becomes endemic across the country and the fact that mortgage rates have ramped up recently (up in the order of 175bps) over the past few months, we don’t think the RBNZ needs to panic and create more uncertainty by delivering a chunky 50bps increase – a 25bps move along with ongoing guidance that the policy rate needs to head to at least neutral or higher should suffice.
  • We’d suggest fading any NZD reaction as its path likely remains independent of local policy and more sensitive to the Fed’s policy outlook.

RBNZ Gov. Orr:

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Statement is due at 0100 GMT. A cash rate hike of 25bps is widely expected, with some expecting 50bps. Previews:

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