OPEC+ meeting this week – watching for the response to the US oil reserve release

In the wake of the SPR release, from the US and some Asian countries, there was chatter of an angry OPEC+ cutting output in retaliation. 

If they do they’ll cop a lot of blame for fuelling (sorry for the pun) even higher inflation that’ll potentially stifle the global economic recovery. On the other hand, the group has expressed concerns of oversupplying the market. This will be an interesting meeting. I wish I could convey a well-reasoned case for what will be the outcome of this meeting but OPEC+ machinations are pretty much always a mystery. I’m going to bet on the current output increase plan being stuck to on the basis of it being the status quo and a desire from the group not further inflame tensions with Biden.

OPEC+ currently has a plan in place to once again increase production by 400,000 barrels /day in December, as it has done since July 2021 and plans to do in the months following (until the end of 2022). 

What’s ahead and when:

Today, 01 December 2021:

  • OPEC meeting at 1500 GMT 
  • JTC meet 17:00 GMT 

Thursday 01 December 2021:

  • JMMC 1400 GMT 
  • OPC+ meet at 1500 GMT 

JTC = Joint Technical Committee

  •  JTC’s role is to make an assessment of energy markets, the supply and demand balance, for OPEC ministers to consider when making cartel policy.

JMMC = Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee

  • JMMC tracks the compliance of Opec+ members with their production quotas.
In the wake of the SPR release, from the US and some Asian countries, there was chatter of an angry OPEC+ cutting output in retaliation. 

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