In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said that they are still on a path to get to 2% inflation, adding that it was ‘nice’ to get an inflation number that’s better than expected.
Key takeaways
“There’s more uncertainty, noise.”
“My projections were for a little more shallow rate-path in 2025.”
“Next 12- to 18- months, rates can go down a fair amount.”
“Employment is stable, want to keep it stable, to do so rates need to come down to something like neutral.”
“I agree policy rate is meaningful restrictive.”
“I agree policy rate is still far from neutral rate.”
“We are significantly less restrictive than we were.”
“Our job is to think through scenarios, though we don’t know what new administration will propose.”
“Uncertainty on policy is part of why I feel rate-path next year is a bit more shallow.”
“Rates will come down by a judicious amount next year.”
“Rate path will be determined by employment, prices.”
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
