Morgan Stanley still like long AUD/NZD

bank trade ideas,

out eFX Plus


Morgan Stanley:

  • “Downside risks for NZD remain, though, given asymmetric risks to RBNZ pricing. The persistent curve inversion suggests markets are pricing in a risk of a policy mistake. We are watching the Feb RBNZ meeting closely, particularly for guidance on the balance sheet,”

  • “We expect AU D to outperform NZD (targeting 1.08) given risks that swap traders reduce expectations for RBNZ policy (current implying a likelihood of 6 hikes in the next 12 months),”

The Feb meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand MS mention is not until late in the month – this below from the RBNZ website on what is ahead:

rbnz meetings 2022


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