In a market like this, economic data is a one-way risk.
The mood is extremely negative at the moment but no one is particularly worried about the US economy. So the baseline isn’t fear about economic data, it’s worry about Ukraine, omicron and tech stocks.
So we have the Markit manufacturing survey coming out at 9:45 am ET. The consensus is a dip to 56.7 from 57.7. If it’s anywhere close to consensus it won’t matter and if it’s strong I believe it will be ignored.
However if we get a miss — and the Jan Empire Fed was extremely poor at -0.7 vs +25.7 exp — that could offer a fresh reason to sell down risk.
Also keep an eye on the indications around pricing, which are adding to worries.
It also comes along with the services PMI, which is also a risk. The consensus there is a dip to 55.0 from 57.6 but I suspect the market will be a bit more forgiving because omicron is a one-off.