That he will declare Luhansk and Donetsk independent is a foregone conclusion.
Beyond that, it will come down to Ukraine’s response and global sanctions but we won’t hear about that in Putin’s speech. We also might not get clarity on those borders.
There were reports saying the speech would be on at 9 pm in Moscow but that’s 15 minutes ago now. It’s getting late but there’s no doubt that Putin’s phone is ringing.