There’s a bit of a blowout in the Fed fund futures
Futures

Futures or a futures contract represents a legal agreement to buy or sell a security or asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Of note, the parties are not known to each other.These transactions usually involve commodities or other securities involving the buying and selling for a forward or predetermined price.Futures also adhere to a delivery date, which specifies the date of delivery and payment. Relative to other forms of
investing futures are much more complex, as they involve specified and non-flexible parameters.Futures Trading ExplainedFutures contracts are negotiated at exchanges that act as a unified marketplace for both buyers and sellers. Buyers of contracts represent long position holders, while selling parties constitute short position holders.Both parties risk their counterparty walking away if the price goes against them. As such, the contract can involve both parties incurring a margin of the value of the contract with a mutually trusted third party.This margin can range substantially, depending on the current volatility of the market of the security being traded.Futures can be incredibly risky and are the textbook definition of market speculation. A trader who predicts that the price of an asset will move in a certain direction can contract to buy or sell it in the future at a price.If this prediction is correct, the trader will profit. If the prediction is incorrect there will be losses. Futures trading is considered an advanced type of trading that requires prior knowledge and understanding.For this reason, retail traders will seldom be afforded access to futures trading by brokers without first undergoing specific questions or account requirements.

Futures or a futures contract represents a legal agreement to buy or sell a security or asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Of note, the parties are not known to each other.These transactions usually involve commodities or other securities involving the buying and selling for a forward or predetermined price.Futures also adhere to a delivery date, which specifies the date of delivery and payment. Relative to other forms of investing futures are much more complex, as they involve specified and non-flexible parameters.Futures Trading ExplainedFutures contracts are negotiated at exchanges that act as a unified marketplace for both buyers and sellers. Buyers of contracts represent long position holders, while selling parties constitute short position holders.Both parties risk their counterparty walking away if the price goes against them. As such, the contract can involve both parties incurring a margin of the value of the contract with a mutually trusted third party.This margin can range substantially, depending on the current volatility of the market of the security being traded.Futures can be incredibly risky and are the textbook definition of market speculation. A trader who predicts that the price of an asset will move in a certain direction can contract to buy or sell it in the future at a price.If this prediction is correct, the trader will profit. If the prediction is incorrect there will be losses. Futures trading is considered an advanced type of trading that requires prior knowledge and understanding.For this reason, retail traders will seldom be afforded access to futures trading by brokers without first undergoing specific questions or account requirements.
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market at the moment. I don’t rule out that’s traders caught offside and getting squeezed. In any case, the implied probabilty of a 100 basis points hike to 3.25-3.50% is stting at 47% now. That’s a big shift from essentially nil before CPI.

I expect the Fed to leak something to the WSJ sometime soon but they may want to wait and see Thursday’s retail sales and Friday’s UMich sentiment survey first.

Update: The odds are back down to 33%. It looks like that was a bit of a squeeze.