Goldman Sachs sees risk of $125 oil. Why it will be tough to bring on supply

Oil is at session lows at the moment, down $1.40 to $91.51

Goldman Sachs is warning it could rise to $125 and that risks remain to the upside. In a note today,

“In our view, until the uncertainty around the rapidly escalating situation is resolved, commodity price risk remains skewed to the upside, with further escalation likely to send European natural gas, wheat, corn and oil prices higher from already-elevated levels. Crucially, we see a clear risk of $125/bbl in crude should the global market need to balance by summer 2022, as opposed to our current summer 2023 base case, in the face of these supply concerns, as we believe oil demand destruction would be required around the world to drive the faster rebalancing in global oil markets,” wrote Goldman’s Jeff Currie said in a new research note.

The market is seeing less of a risk of Russian oil being cutoff because of softer sanctions but in the longer term, Currie highlights the looming problem.

“While the range of near-term price outcomes is wide, our longer-term, bullish underinvestment thesis is very much intact and reinforced by these events,” Currie wrote.

On that note, fracking contractor Trican Well was out with its  earnings 
Earnings

A company’s earnings represent its profits or net benefits as a result of its operation.Earnings are the net benefits of a corporation’s operation. Earnings can be calculated as EBIT, i.e. earnings before interest and taxes, and EBITDA, i.e. earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.Earnings are valuable tools for investors of company shares as they can often highlight a company’s financial standing and performance. Better performances can result in strengthened share prices, while unexpectedly bad earnings can risk declines in share prices. Using Earnings to Better Inform Investment DecisionsMany analysts also use other measures such as earnings per share (EPS) as a way to compare the earnings of multiple companies.EPS is calculated by the remaining earnings leftover for shareholders, divided by the number of shares outstanding. This is a more fine-tuned measure for investors and analysts given each company has a different number of shares owned by the public.Only comparing companies’ existing earnings does not accurately indicate how much money each company has for each of its shares over a specific period.As a result, EPS is routinely used to make better-informed comparisons and forecasts.In the US, all companies are obligated to report quarterly earnings to the public, which informs on the state of any publicly traded company. These events are very monitored and important, especially for large corporations.In addition, several companies are used as barometers for the state of the overall market or US economy, lending further weight to these metrics.Ultimately, earnings are an integral element of the US stock market and ensure companies disclose their financials in ways that do not leave investors or the public in the dark.

A company’s earnings represent its profits or net benefits as a result of its operation.Earnings are the net benefits of a corporation’s operation. Earnings can be calculated as EBIT, i.e. earnings before interest and taxes, and EBITDA, i.e. earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.Earnings are valuable tools for investors of company shares as they can often highlight a company’s financial standing and performance. Better performances can result in strengthened share prices, while unexpectedly bad earnings can risk declines in share prices. Using Earnings to Better Inform Investment DecisionsMany analysts also use other measures such as earnings per share (EPS) as a way to compare the earnings of multiple companies.EPS is calculated by the remaining earnings leftover for shareholders, divided by the number of shares outstanding. This is a more fine-tuned measure for investors and analysts given each company has a different number of shares owned by the public.Only comparing companies’ existing earnings does not accurately indicate how much money each company has for each of its shares over a specific period.As a result, EPS is routinely used to make better-informed comparisons and forecasts.In the US, all companies are obligated to report quarterly earnings to the public, which informs on the state of any publicly traded company. These events are very monitored and important, especially for large corporations.In addition, several companies are used as barometers for the state of the overall market or US economy, lending further weight to these metrics.Ultimately, earnings are an integral element of the US stock market and ensure companies disclose their financials in ways that do not leave investors or the public in the dark.
Read this Term and conference call yesterday and they highlight what’s happening on the ground.

CEO Brad Fedora indicated that companies are growing more inclined towards drilling, at least for short-cycle projects but that they were in no hurry to expand offerings, despite idled equipment.

“Because labor is so tight, we will continue to see labor availability as a very significant bottleneck in crew additions, whether it’s in the fracturing industry or the drilling industry. And so, I think the industry overall will be sort of operating at its max capacity from a people perspective. And whether there is discipline or not, it probably won’t matter, because people just won’t be able to add equipment like they used to. It just takes so much time now to get additional people. And I think we’ve communicated this many times before, but we did add Crew 7 in our fracturing division. It took over 6 months to get the people to add that crew, and so we don’t expect that’s going to change going forward.”

So whether it’s $125 now or later — Iran discussions will play a role in that — the theme of underinvestment isn’t going away, even with oil above $90. That sets up for high long-term prices and all the  inflation 
Inflation

Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.

Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Read this Term that seeds throughout the system.