- GBP/USD found the gas for a thin rally on Friday.
- Upbeat UK Retail Sales figures helped the Pound find its footing.
- A broad-market pivot out of the Greenback further aided Dollar pairs.
GBP/USD extended a near-term recovery rally to wrap up the trading week, inching back in a familiar congestion zone and clawing back meager gains from the midweek’s backslide into the 1.3000 handle. The Pound Sterling was bolstered by better-than-expected UK Retail Sales figures, with gains further buoyed by a broad-market easing in Greenback bidding.
UK Retail Sales bounced 0.3% in September, falling back from August’s 1.0% but still sticking well above the expected -0.3% contraction. After a raft of bad data from the UK, GBP bidders got the break they needed. Cable bulls will now have to settle in for the long wait to next week’s UK Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures, due next Thursday.
US housing and construction figures came in moderately mixed on Friday, further entrenching investors in a buying mood and further crushing any fears of an economic slowdown right around the corner. The US’ “soft landing” scenario appears to have been fully averted with growth and activity metrics easily beating expectations, and upbeat Retail Sales figures releases earlier this week further make the case.
GBP/USD price forecast
GBP/USD has shown some resilience near the 1.3000 level after bouncing from recent lows, but the recovery remains constrained by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3094, which now acts as a key resistance. The pair is currently trading at 1.3052, and a successful break above the 50-day EMA would signal a stronger bullish reversal. However, the broader outlook remains neutral to bearish as long as the pair trades below the 1.3100 resistance zone. A failure to clear this level could bring the bears back into play, with the 200-day EMA at 1.2844 acting as a critical support level.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in bearish territory, with the signal line below the MACD line, indicating that downside pressure persists. However, the histogram is showing signs of narrowing, which could suggest a potential shift in momentum in the near term. A sustained move above the 50-day EMA could pave the way for a test of the 1.3150 and 1.3200 levels, but failure to break higher could lead to renewed selling, targeting the 1.2900 support zone. Traders should watch for a clear directional break to confirm the next move.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.