2025.03.18 2025.03.19
Weekly Economic Calendar for 24.03.2025–30.03.2025

Jana Kanehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/jana-kane/

The US dollar is still experiencing pressure. Investor sentiment regarding the currency has shifted in response to President Trump’s erratic and unpredictable approach to foreign trade tariffs. His tendency to introduce tariffs only to remove them shortly after has left many uncertain about the currency’s stability.

Experts believe that rising foreign trade tariffs in the US will primarily drive up domestic prices. Meanwhile, Trump sidestepped questions from journalists regarding the likelihood of a recession. The long-term risks associated with higher tariffs, escalating trade tensions, and recession concerns are already contributing to the weakening of the US dollar.

In the upcoming week of 24.03.2025–30.03.2025, investors will closely monitor major macroeconomic reports from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, the US, Japan, and Australia.

The key event to watch is Friday’s release of US personal consumption expenditures data. The annual core PCE serves as the primary inflation indicator used by the US Fed.

Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time

Major Takeaways

• Monday: PMIs from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US by S&P Global
• Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence Index
• Wednesday: UK CPIs
• Thursday: final estimates on the US GDP for Q4, Tokyo’s CPIs
• Friday: US PCE index, crucial macroeconomic data from the UK, including GDP
• Key event of the week: US Personal Consumption Expenditures data publication (annual core PCE)

Monday, March 24

08:30 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The manufacturing and services PMIs are important indicators of the business environment and the health of the German economy. These sectors play a significant role in Germany’s GDP. A reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook and bolsters the euro, while a reading below 50 is negative for the euro. Conversely, data worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value will prove to be negative for the euro.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 46.5, 45.0, 42.5 in December 2024, 43.0, 43.0, 40.6, 42.4, 43.2, 43.5, 45.4, 42.5, 41.9, 42.5, 45.5, 43.3, 40.8, 39.6, 38.8, 40.6, 43.2, 44.5, 44.7, 46.3, 47.3, 47.1, 46.2, 45.1, 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6;
• Services PMI: 51.1, 52.5, 51.2 in December 2024, 49.3, 51.6, 50.6, 51.2, 52.5, 53.1, 54.2, 53.2, 50.1, 48.3, 47.7, 45.7, 48.2, 50.3, 52.3, 54.1, 57.2, 56.0, 53.7, 50.9, 50.7, 49.2, 46.1, 46.5, 45.0, 47.7, 49.7, 52.4, 55.0, 57.6, 56.1, 55.8;
• Composite PMI: 50.4, 50.5, 48.0 in December 2024, 47.2, 48.6, 47.5, 48.4, 49.1, 50.4, 52.4, 50.6, 47.7, 46.3, 47.0, 47.4, 45.9, 46.4, 48.5, 50.6, 53.9, 54.2, 52.6, 50.7, 49.9, 49.0, 46.3, 45.1, 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55.1, 55.6.

09:00 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of Eurozone Manufacturing Activity by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs are significant indicators of the European economy state. Readings above 50 are positive and strengthen the euro, while readings below 50 are negative for the currency. If the figures are worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value, the euro will be affected negatively.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 47.6, 46.6, 49.6 in December 2024, 45.2, 46.0, 45.0, 45.8, 45.8, 45.8, 47.3, 45.7, 46.1, 46.5, 46.6, 44.4, 43.1, 47.2, 42.7, 43.4, 44.8, 45.8, 47.3, 48.5, 48.8 in January 2023;
• Services PMI: 50.6, 51.3, 51.2 in December 2024, 49.5, 51.6, 51.4, 52.9, 51.9, 52.8, 53.2, 53.3, 51.5, 50.2, 48.4, 48.8, 47.8, 48.7, 50.9, 52.0, 55.1, 56.2, 55.0, 52.7, 50.8 in January 2023;
• Composite PMI: 50.2, 50.2, 48.0 in December 2024, 48.3, 50.0, 49.6, 51.0, 50.2, 50.9, 52.2, 51.7, 50.3, 49.2, 47.9, 47.6, 46.5, 47.2, 48.6, 52.8, 54.1, 53.7, 52.0, 50.3, 49.3 in January 2023.

09:30 – GBP: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the UK Manufacturing Sector by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The manufacturing and services PMIs serve as a vital indicator of the UK economy’s health. The services sector employs the majority of the UK’s working-age population and contributes approximately 75% of GDP. Financial services continue to be the most important part of the services sector. If the data is worse than forecast and the previous value, the British pound will likely experience a short-term but sharp decline. If the data exceeds the forecast and the previous value, it will have a positive impact on the currency. At the same time, a PMI reading above 50 is favorable and strengthens the British pound, while a reading below 50 is negative for the currency.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 46.9, 48.3, 48.0, 49.9, 51,5, 52.5, 52.1, 50.9, 51.2, 49.1, 50.3, 47.5, 47.0, 46.2, 44.8, 44.3, 45.3, 46.5, 47.1, 47.8, 47.9, 49.3, 47.0, 45.3, 46.5, 46.2, 48.4;
• Services PMI: 51.0, 50.9, 51.1 in December 2024, 50.8, 52.0, 51.4, 53.7, 52.5, 52.1, 52.9, 55.0, 53.1, 53.8, 54.3, 53.4, 49.5, 49.3, 51.5, 53.7, 55.2, 55.9, 52.9, 53.5, 48.7, 49.9, 48.8, 48.8, 50.0, 50.9, 52.6;
• Composite PMI: 50.5, 50.6, 50.4 in December 2024, 50.5, 51.8, 49.6, 53.8, 52.8, 52.3, 53.0, 54.1, 52.8, 53.0, 52.9, 52.1, 48.7, 48.5, 50.8, 52.8, 54.0, 54.9, 52.2, 53.1, 48.5 in January 2023.

13:45 – USD: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the US Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (Preliminary Releases)

The PMIs of the most important US economic sectors, released by S&P Global, are an important gauge of the US economic conditions. A PMI reading above 50 signals bullishness, bolstering the US dollar, whereas a reading below 50 bodes negatively for the greenback.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 52.7, 51.2, 49.4 in December 2024, 49.7, 48.5, 47.6, 47.9, 49.6, 51.6, 51.3, 50.0, 51.9, 52.2, 50.7, 47.9, 50.0, 49.8, 49.0, 46.3, 48.4, 50.2, 47.3, 46.9, 46.2, 47.7, 50.4, 52.0, 51.5;
• Services PMI: 51.0, 52.9, 56.8 in December 2024, 56.1, 55.0, 55.2, 55.7, 55.0, 55.3, 54.8, 51.3, 51.7, 52.3, 52.5, 51.4, 50.6, 50.1, 52.3, 54.4, 54.9, 53.6, 50.6, 46.8, 44.7, 46.2, 47.8, 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6;
• Composite PMI: 51.6, 52.7, 55.4 in December 2024, 54.9, 54.1, 54.0, 54.6, 54.3, 54.8, 54.5, 51.3, 52.1, 52.5, 52.0, 50.9, 50.7, 50.2, 52.0, 53.2, 54.3, 53.4, 52.3, 50.1, 46.8 in January 2023.

18:00 – GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s Speech

Market participants are waiting for Andrew Bailey to clarify the future policy of the UK central bank. Typically, during the speech of the Bank of England governor, the British pound and the FTSE index of the London Stock Exchange face a significant spike in volatility, especially if there are any indications regarding monetary policy tightening or easing. Andrew Bailey will likely explain the Bank of England’s interest rate decision and discuss the UK economy’s health and prospects against the backdrop of high energy prices and inflation.

Tuesday, March 25

14:00 – USD: Consumer Confidence Index

A Conference Board’s survey of nearly 3,000 US households evaluates current and future economic conditions and overall economic sentiment. Consumer confidence in the country’s economic development and stability is a key indicator of consumer spending and, consequently, economic performance. High confidence levels suggest economic growth, while low levels indicate stagnation.

Previous indicator values: 98.3, 104.1 in January 2025, 104.7 in December 2024, 111.7, 108.7, 98.7, 103.3, 100.3, 100.4, 102.0, 97.0, 104.7, 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.

The increase in the indicator values will bolster the US dollar exchange rate, while the decrease will weaken it.

Wednesday, March 26

00:30 – AUD: Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Inflation Index, published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gauges retail prices of goods and services in Australia. The CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high indicator reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative. Previous indicator values: +2.5% in January 2025, +2.5% in December, +2.1% in October and September, +2.7% in August and +1.0% (+3.8% YoY) in Q2 2024, +1.0% (+3.6% YoY) in Q1 2024, +0.6% (+3.4% YoY) in Q4 2023, +1.2% (+5.4% YoY) in Q3, +0.8% (+6.0% YoY) in Q2, +1.4% (+7.0% YoY) in Q1 2023, +1.9% (+7.8% YoY) in Q4 2022, +1.8% (+7.3% YoY) in Q3, +1.8% (+6.1% YoY) in Q2 2022, +2.1% (+5.1% YoY) in Q1 2022, +1.3% (+3.5% YoY) in Q4, +0.8% (+3.0% YoY) in Q3, +0.8% (+3.8% YoY) in Q2, +0.6% (+1.1% YoY) in Q1 2021.

The Australian central bank’s CPI inflation target ranges between 2% and 3%. According to the minutes of a recent RBA Board meeting, the bank may need to increase interest rates over time to bring inflation back to the target range and take further measures in the coming months to stabilize monetary conditions in Australia.

Now, the RBA, like most of the world’s other major central banks, is facing persistently high inflation.

The expected positive CPI reading will likely strengthen the Australian dollar. If the indicator readings are worse than the forecast or the previous value, the Australian dollar will face short-term negative effects.

07:00 – GBP: Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the retail prices of a group of goods and services comprising the UK consumer basket. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation. The British pound’s movement on the currency market and the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 index performance depend on the release of the CPI data.

In January, the UK consumer inflation rose +3.0% YoY after 0.3% (+2.5% YoY) in December 2024, +0.1% (2.6% YoY), +0,6% (2.3% YoY) in October, 0% (+1.7%YoY) in September, +0.3% (+2.2% YoY) in August, -0.2% (+2.2% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+2.0% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+2.0% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+2.3% YoY) in April, +0.6% (+3.2% YoY) in March, +0.6% (+3.4% YoY), -0.6% (+4.0% YoY) in January 2024, +0.4% (+4.0% YoY) in December. The data suggests persistent inflationary pressures in the UK, which are expected to bolster the British pound, particularly if the actual data surpasses the forecasted values.

An indicator reading below the forecast/previous value may cause the weakening of the British pound since low inflation will force the Bank of England to stick to the easy monetary policy course.

The Core CPI, published by the Office for National Statistics, measures the price change in a selected basket of goods and services (excluding food and energy) over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the British pound, while a negative outcome weakens it.

In January, the core CPI gained +3.7% YoY after +3.2% YoY in December 2024, +2.6% YoY, +3.3% YoY in October, +1.7% in September, +3.6% in August, +3.3% YoY in July, +3.5% in June and May, +3.9%, +4.2%, +4.5%, +5.1% in January 2024, December and November, after rising +5.7% +6.1%, +6.2% three months earlier. The publication will likely positively impact the British pound in the short term if it exceeds the forecasted and previous values. A reading below the forecast and/or previous values may weaken the pound.

Thursday, March 27

12:30 – USD: US GDP Annual Growth Rate for Q4 (Final Estimate)

The GDP data is one of the key indicators, along with labor market and inflation data, for the US Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A positive indicator reading strengthens the US dollar, while a weak GDP report is harmful for the currency. GDP grew +3.1% in Q3, after +3.0% in Q2, +1.6% in Q1 2024, +3.2% in Q4 2023, +4.4%, +2.4% in Q2, +2.8% in Q1 2023.

If the data indicate a decline in GDP in Q4 2024, the US dollar will face significant pressure. Conversely, positive GDP figures will bolster the greenback and US stock indices.

The preliminary estimate stood at +2.3%.

23:30 – JPY: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tokyo Core CPI excluding Food and Energy

Tokyo’s consumer price indexes, published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, gauge the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. These indexes are key indicators for assessing inflation and consumer preferences.

Previous values YoY:

• Tokyo CPI: +2.9%, +3.4%,+3.1%, +2.6%, +1.8%, +2.1%, +2.6%, 2.2%, +2.3%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +1.8%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% in January 2023;
• Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy: +2.2%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +1.6%, +1.6%, +1.5%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% in January 2023.

The indicator reading lower than forecasted and/or previous values may weaken the yen, while a rise in the indicator may strengthen the currency.

Friday, March 28

07:00 – GBP: UK GDP for Q4 2024 (Final Estimate)

GDP is viewed as an indicator of the UK economy’s condition. The growing GDP indicator is considered positive for the British pound. The UK GDP rate was one of the highest in the world until 2016 when the Brexit referendum occurred. Subsequently, its growth decelerated, and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK GDP rate dropped.

Previous GDP values: 0.0% in Q3, +0.5% in Q2, +0.7% in Q1 2024, -0.3% in Q4, -0.1% in Q3, 0% in Q2, +0.2% in Q1 2023, +0.1% in Q4 2022, -0.1% in Q3, +0.1% in Q2, +0.5% in Q1 2022, +1.5% in Q4 2022.

The key factors that may force the Bank of England to keep the rate low include weak GDP, slow labor market growth, and low consumer spending. Should the GDP data fall significantly below previous values, the pound will face downward pressure. Conversely, high GDP readings will bolster the currency.

The preliminary estimate stood at +0.1% (+1.4% YoY).

07:00 – GBP: Retail Sales

The retail sales economic indicator is a key metric that tracks the level of consumer demand and significantly impacts market performance and the national currency. Additionally, it serves as an indirect indicator of inflation, making it a key concern for a country’s central bank and market participants.

The retail sales report is released by the UK Office for National Statistics. The Retail Sales change is considered to indicate the consumer spending level. High indicator values are positive for the British pound, while low readings are negative.

Previous index values YoY: +1.0% in January 2025, +3.6% in December 2024, 0%, +2.0%, +3.2%, +2.3%, +1.5%, -0.3%, +1.7%, -2.3%, +0.4%, -0.3%, -0.3%, +0.4% in January 2024, -2.8% in December 2023, +0.0%, -2.3%, -1.1%, -1.2%, -3.1%, -1.8 in June 2023.

12:30 – USD: Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE Price Index)

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflect the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. The core PCE price index excludes food and energy prices. The annual core PCE is the main inflation gauge used by the US Fed as the primary inflation indicator.

The inflation rate, along with the labor market and GDP data, is crucial for the Fed in determining its monetary policy. Growing prices exert pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.

The PCE data above the forecasted and/or previous values may boost the US dollar, while a decline in the reading will likely exert a negative impact on the greenback.

Previous values YOY: +2.6% in January 2025, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.6%, +2.6%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.9% in January 2024, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +4.3%, +4.3% +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.7%, +4.6%, +4.8%, +5.1%, +5.2%, +4.9%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.2% in January 2022.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode