Clyde Russell at Reuters takes a look at a few scenarios for global markets in 2025 and how they will play out. It’s a good time to think through some different ideas, even if you disagree with some of the takes here. Not surprisingly, the list is dominated by the uncertainty of how Trump and Republicans will govern.
- &]:mt-2 list-decimal space-y-2 pl-8″ depth=”0″>
- Trump Better Than Expected
- &]:mt-2 list-disc space-y-2 pl-8″ depth=”0″>
- Trade threats yield concessions
- US economy leads global growth
- China recovers
- Peace deals reached
- Bullish: copper
- Bearish: oil, gas
- &]:mt-2 list-decimal space-y-2 pl-8″ start=”2″ depth=”0″>
- Trump Worse Than Feared
- &]:mt-2 list-disc space-y-2 pl-8″ depth=”0″>
- Major trade barriers erected
- Global economy suffers
- Higher inflation
- Bearish: copper, iron ore, oil, LNG
- Bond markets punish Treasuries
- &]:mt-2 list-decimal space-y-2 pl-8″ start=”3″ depth=”0″>
- China Recovery
- &]:mt-2 list-disc space-y-2 pl-8″ depth=”0″>
- Property/local govt cleanup succeeds
- Consumer spending rebounds
- New markets for green tech
- Bullish: copper, iron ore, LNG, coal
- Limited oil impact due to EVs
- &]:mt-2 list-decimal space-y-2 pl-8″ start=”4″ depth=”0″>
- OPEC+ Fractures
- &]:mt-2 list-disc space-y-2 pl-8″ depth=”0″>
- Unity breaks under US production surge
- UAE may increase output
- $75/bbl support threatened
- EV adoption pressures oil outlook
- &]:mt-2 list-decimal space-y-2 pl-8″ start=”5″ depth=”0″>
- Energy Transition Ex-US
- &]:mt-2 list-disc space-y-2 pl-8″ depth=”0″>
- China floods market with cheap green tech
- US isolates itself
- Global adoption accelerates
- Bullish: copper, lithium, minor metals, silver
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
