Fed researchers find “a substantial downside risk to the Chinese growth outlook”

Federal Reserve Bank of New York research points to a signal of financial stress in China.

  • Globally, financial market stresses have eased significantly since the spring of 2020. Although Chinese financial conditions are at historically average levels, they have trailed the rest of the world. Given the relatively large degree of comovement in financial conditions across countries, this suggests that a potentially significant buildup in Chinese domestic financial market stresses has been masked by conditions abroad. The domestic component from our index of financial market stress in China indeed reveals that domestically driven financial market stresses have moved higher since the start of 2021. Although its peak in October was below the levels seen in early 2020, the still-high stress level signaled a substantial downside risk to the Chinese growth outlook.

Bolding is mine. 

If you were around earlier you’ll note China is not pulling back on stimulus:

Federal Reserve Bank of New York research points to a signal of financial stress in China.

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