EURUSD: who’s a liar? Review as of 18.02.2022

Why should Moscow want to pillage Kyiv if everything has already been pillaged there?

Who’s lying about the conflict in Eastern Europe?

Scientists have finally found out what women want, but they then changed their minds. Joe Biden is no woman, but no one can understand what he wants. One day, he appealed to Saudi Arabia to make OPEC+ increase output as high oil prices undermine the US and global economic health. Another day, he frightened financial markets, saying Russia could attack Ukraine in a few following days, which raised Brent and WTI quotes. What about combating US inflation? Isn’t that the first-priority task of the White House?

News from the Russia-Ukraine border has caused anxiety to financial markets the whole week. Investors felt relieved at a withdrawal of Russian troops, but Washington didn’t believe it. Joe Biden mentioned an upcoming provocation, and stock indexes rushed to the red zone again. It’s becoming hard to tell who’s lying.

– Are you an honest person, Joe?

– Yes, I am. It’s happened to me once or twice.

War hype is still on all tabloid front pages. Hysteria is growing, and even Ukraine’s president has started joking: Vladimir Zelensky said a Russian invasion was coming on Wednesday. Foreigners did not appreciate the joke, and the S&P 500 collapsed again. Why should Moscow want to pillage Kyiv if everything has already been pillaged there before? On the other hand, if Putin plans an invasion, he should invade now when the soil is frozen.

The opponents’ positions are apples and oranges: Washington says Russia needs Ukraine and Moscow says Ukraine does not need NATO. 

– You know, we aren’t right for each other.

– We are even less right for anyone else.

Interestingly, the euro is sensitive to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, too. The escalation of geopolitical tensions pushes gas prices up. That aggravates the impact of the energetic crisis on the eurozone’s economy, making investors talk about the US GDP’s outperformance and sell the EURUSD. However, the rouble is getting weaker as well. Should Russia probably cut off all gas supplies to make its currency more expensive than the US dollar? 

The war theme overshadowed any other forex events. Who’s more frightening — Vladimir Putin with his tanks or Jerome Powell with his rates? A week ago, investors would have said: the latter. Today, nothing is clear. The Fed has made a mistake, wondering last year if inflation slowed down then or the other day. As a result, they had to hold back sky-rocketing prices.

A son asked his father so many times if they were there yet that he was dropped 40 kilometers away from their countryside cottage.

Catching up with a train is always hard, so you need to speed up. However, the FOMC members’ hawkish mindset did dirt to the USD: 6 to 7 monetary restriction stages have already been priced in quotes in 2022. If there are fewer of them, the greenback will drown. No doubt, the Fed won’t treat its economy so badly.

 

 

 

 

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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