Economic calendar for the week 21.02.2022 – 27.02.2022

Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (21.02.2022 – 27.02.2022)

DXY index of the US dollar almost did not change by the end of the last week. Nothing new was said in the minutes of the Fed meeting published last Wednesday. On the contrary, they weakened expectations of a more aggressive tightening of the Fed’s policy. “If, contrary to expectations, inflation does not slow down, it would be advisable for the Committee (FOMC) to remove stimulus measures faster than expected,” the minutes of the central bank meeting released on Wednesday said. Market participants were probably so disappointed with the neutral FOMC minutes that they practically ignored the strong macroeconomic statistics from the US published last week. At the same time, the main US stock indices continued to decline, closing in negative territory for the 2nd week in a row.

Like other major world stock indices, they continue to be pressured by growing tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border. It is noteworthy that gold quotes reached a new 8-month high last week at around 1902.00 dollars per ounce.

If the escalation of tension is not released, we can expect further growth in gold quotes and a fall in world stock indices.

Next week, market participants will also pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics from Germany, the US, the UK, the Eurozone, New Zealand, as well as the results of meetings of the central banks of China and New Zealand on monetary policy issues.

*during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be canceled

**GMT time

Monday, February 21

In the US, banks and exchanges are closed due to Presidents Day: trading volumes during the US trading session will be low

01:15 CNY People’s Bank of China interest rate decision

Since May 2012, the People’s Bank of China has been steadily lowering the interest rate, providing support to Chinese manufacturers. The last time the bank lowered the rate was in December 2021 (by 0.05% to 3.80% at the moment).

In 2020, in the context of international trade conflicts and a slowdown in the global economy, the world’s largest central banks took the path of easing their monetary policies in order to support national economies and increase the competitiveness of goods exported from these countries.

The People’s Bank of China is also in line with this process. The depreciation of the yuan became especially relevant when the confrontation between the two most powerful economies in the world began. One of the measures to offset the negative consequences of increased duties on the import of Chinese goods into the United States was the depreciation of the national currency of China. The coronavirus pandemic has become an additional strong negative factor.

Probably, at this meeting, the People’s Bank of China will keep the interest rate at the same level of 3.70%, although a rate cut is also possible.

However, if the People’s Bank of China makes unexpected statements or decisions, volatility could increase throughout the financial market. Investors will also be interested in the bank’s assessment of the consequences of the coronavirus for the Chinese economy and its policies in the near future.

08:30 EUR Manufacturing PMI of the German economy according to Markit Economics (preliminary release). Composite PMI of the German economy according to Markit Economics (preliminary release)

Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of the business environment and the general state of the German economy. This sector of the economy forms a significant part of Germany’s GDP. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, one below 50 is considered negative for the euro.

Previous monthly values: 59.8, 57.4, 57.4, 57.8, 58.4, 62.6, 65.9, 65.1, 64.4, 66.2, 66.6, 60, 7, 57.1, 58.3, 57.8, which indicates the uneven recovery of business activity in this sector of the German economy after its slowdown in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, and this is a negative factor for the euro. The growth of the indicator above the previous values ​​will support the euro (in the short term). Data worse than the forecast and / or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.

Composite PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall health of the German economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, one below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Previous monthly values: 53.8, 49.9, 52.2, 52.0, 55.5, 60.0, 62.4, 60.1, 56.2, 55.8, 57.3, 51, 1, 50.8, 52.0, 51.7. Data worse than the forecast and / or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.

09:00 EUR Composite Manufacturing PMI of the Eurozone economy according to Markit Economics (preliminary release)

Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of the state of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, while one below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Previous monthly values: 52.3, 53.3, 55.4, 54.2, 56.2, 59.0, 60.2, 59.5, 57.1, 53.8, 53.2, 62, 5, 48.8, 47.8, 49.1, 45.3. Data worse than the forecast and / or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.

09:30 GBP UK Services PMI according to Markit Economics (preliminary release)

UK Services PMI is an important indicator of the state of the British economy. The services sector employs the majority of the UK’s working-age population and generates approximately 75% of GDP. The most important part of the services industry is still financial services. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, the pound is likely to fall sharply in the short term. Data better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, a result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the GBP, while one below 50 is considered negative for the GBP.

Previous values ​​of the indicator: 54.1 in January, 53.6 in December, 58.5 in November, 59.1 in October, 55.4 in September, 55.0 in August, 59.6 in July, 62.4 in June 2021 after falling to 29.0 in May, 13.4 in April, 34.5 in March 2020.

Tueaday, February 22

In Japan, banks and exchanges are closed due to the Emperor’s Birthday celebration: trading volumes will be reduced during the Asian trading session. There is no important macro statistics scheduled on this day.

Wednesday, February 23

01:00 NZD The decision of the RB of New Zealand on the interest rate. RBNZ’s accompanying statement

Subdued economic growth (New Zealand GDP growth has slowed since the second half of 2018) and a weakening labor market, as well as an escalation of international trade wars and a worsening global economic outlook, have forced the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep interest rates low for a long time. An additional and unforeseen risk to the global and New Zealand economies was the coronavirus epidemic.

However, following the results of the meetings held in October and November, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (for the first time in 7 years) raised the key interest rate to 0.50%, and then to 0.75%. The rate was raised to dampen inflation and contain rapidly rising home prices. Earlier, the RBNZ said that the economy no longer needed the current level of monetary stimulus. However, the New Zealand dollar weakened after the publication of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s short-term interest rate forecast, which fell short of market expectations. The bank predicted that the rate would reach a peak of 2.6% by the end of 2023 (the previous forecast of the Central Bank assumed that the rate would reach 2.1% by the beginning of 2024). Still, the outlook turned out to be weaker than market expectations reflected in the quotes, amid various risks and uncertainty in the economic outlook.

At this meeting, the RBNZ is expected to raise the interest rate by another 0.25% to 1.00% and may also speak in favor of further increases. Market participants following the NZD quotes need to be prepared for a sharp increase in volatility during this period of time.

In the accompanying statement and comments, the RBNZ management will provide an explanation of the interest rate decision and comments on the economic conditions that contributed to the decision.

At this time, the volatility in the quotes of the New Zealand dollar may rise sharply.

Earlier, the RBNZ said that against the backdrop of “multiple uncertainties”, monetary policy “will remain loose for the foreseeable future” but “may be adjusted accordingly.”

02:00 NZD RBNZ press conference

During the press conference, the RBNZ head Adrian Orr will explain the bank’s decision. His speeches often serve as an informal source of information on the future direction of the RBNZ’s monetary policy. In his opinion, the country’s monetary policy should correlate with the dynamics of employment and the financial stability of the state.

Earlier, the RBNZ said that against the backdrop of “multiple uncertainties”, monetary policy “will remain loose for the foreseeable future” but “may be adjusted accordingly.”

In any case, increased volatility in New Zealand dollar trading is expected during the RBNZ press conference.

GBP Hearing of the inflation report (exact time unknown)

The Governor of the Bank of England and members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will speak in Parliament with comments on the current economic situation and the outlook for the economy. At this time, the volatility in trading in the pound can rise sharply. One of the main benchmarks for the Bank of England regarding the prospects for monetary policy in the UK, in addition to GDP, is the inflation rate. If the tone of the report is soft, the British stock market will receive support, and the pound will fall. Conversely, tough rhetoric from the Bank of England on curbing inflation, implying an increase in the interest rate in the UK, will lead to a strengthening of the pound.

Thursday, February 24

13:30 USD US Annual GDP in Q4 (Second Estimate)

GDP data is one of the key indicators (along with data on the labor market and inflation) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. Strong results strengthen the US dollar; a weak report on GDP has a negative impact on the US dollar. In the previous 3rd quarter, GDP grew by +2.3%, in the 2nd quarter of GDP – by +6.7%, in the 1st quarter of 2021 by +6.3%.

If the data points to a decline in GDP in the 4th quarter, the dollar will be under pressure. Positive data on GDP will support the dollar and US stock indices. The first estimate was +6.9%.

21:45 NZD Retail sales (4th quarter)

The retail sales report is published by the New Zealand Bureau of Statistics. The change in retail sales is usually considered an indicator of consumer spending. In general, a high value of the indicator is a positive factor for NZD, and a low one is a negative factor. In the 3rd quarter of 2021, retail sales decreased by -8.1% due to quarantine restrictions due to Covid-19. The NZD will strengthen if the data is better than the previous values. A weak report will negatively affect the NZD.

Friday, February 25

13:30 USD Durable goods orders. Capital goods orders (ex defense and aviation)

This indicator reflects the value of orders received by producers of durable goods and capital goods (capital goods are durable commodities used to produce durable goods and services) involving large investments. Goods produced in the defense and aviation sectors of the US economy are not included in this indicator. A high result strengthens the USD. Durable Goods Orders: -0.7% in December, +2.6% in November, -0.4% in October, -0.3% in September, +1.8% in August , -0.1% in July, +0.9% in June, +2.3% in May, -1.3% in April, +1% in March, -1.2% in February, +3, 4% in January 2021.

Previous values ​​of the indicator “capital goods orders ex defense and aviation”: +0.3% in December, -0.1% in November, +0.7% in October, +0.8% in September, +0. 6% in August, 0% in July, +0.7% in June, +0.1% in May, +2.2% in April, +1% in March, -0.9% in February, +0.6% in January 2021.

Theoretically, the relative growth of the indicator has a positive impact on the dollar, and the decline of the indicator is negative. The market reaction to its negative value may also be negative for the dollar in the short term. Data worse than the previous value and/or the forecast will also have a negative impact on dollar quotes.

Forecast for January: +0.6% (durable goods orders), 0% (capital goods orders, excluding defense and aviation). The data is likely to have a positive impact on the dollar if the forecast is confirmed.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode