Review of the main events of the forex economic calendar for the next trading week (12.09.2022 – 18.09.2022)
Despite the fact that the first half of the last week turned out to be extremely successful for the dollar (the DXY dollar index updated its 20-year high at 110.78), its decline in the second half of the week (5-11 September) led to a negative result. Nevertheless, the dollar and its DXY index retain the potential for further growth while market participants are waiting for the Fed meeting on September 20-21: the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke last week, confirmed the intention of the central bank’s leaders to follow the course of a tight monetary policy.
Next week, market participants will study important macro statistics from the UK, Germany, the US, New Zealand, Australia, and China.
*) during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be cancelled.
** GMT time
Monday, September 12
No important macro statistics scheduled to be released.
Tuesday, September 13
06:00 GBP Report on the average wages of the British for the last 3 months. Unemployment rate
Every month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes a report on average wages, including the period for the last 3 months, with and without bonuses.
This report is a key short-term indicator of the dynamics of changes in wages of employees in the UK. Wages growth is a positive factor for the GBP, while the low value of the indicator is negative. Forecast: The September report suggests that the average wages with bonuses rose again in the last reported 3 months (May-July), by +5.2% after growth of +5.1%, +6.2%, +6 .8%, +7.0%, +5.4%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.2%, +4.9%, +5.8%, +7.2%, +8.3%, +8.8%, +7.3%, +5.6%, +4.0% in previous periods); wages without bonuses also increased (by +5.0%) after growth by +4.7%, +4.3%, +4.2%, +4.2%, +4.1%, +3.8% , +3.7%, +3.8%, +4.3%, +4.9%, +6.0%, +6.8%, +7.4%, +6.6%, + 5.6%, +4.6% in previous periods). Thus, the data points to the continued growth of wages, which is a positive factor for the pound. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast and / or previous values, the pound is likely to strengthen in the foreign exchange market. Data worse than forecast/previous values will have a negative impact on the pound.
Also at this time the office publishes data on unemployment in the UK. It is expected that for 3 months from May to July, unemployment was at the level of 3.8% (against 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.9%, 5.0%, 5.1%, 5.0% in previous periods).
Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has steadily declined (from 8.0% in September 2012). This is a positive factor for the pound, the rise in unemployment is a negative factor.
If the data from the UK labor market turns out to be worse than the forecast and / or the previous value, the pound will be under pressure.
In any case, at the time of publication of data from the British labor market increased volatility is expected in the quotes of the pound and the London Stock Exchange.
06:00 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany (final release)
This index is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated on the basis of a statistical method agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.
Previous indicator values: +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022 (annualized). If the data for August turn out to be better than the previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro. The data suggests mounting inflationary pressures in Germany, which in turn is putting pressure on the ECB to tighten its monetary policy. Data worse than the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Forecast: +8.8% in August (preliminary estimate was +8.8%).
12:30 USD Consumer Price Index (ex food and energy)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator for a more accurate estimate. A high result strengthens the US dollar, while a low result weakens it. In March 2022, the value of the indicator was +0.3% (+6.5% in annual terms), in April +0.6% (+6.2% in annual terms), in June +0.7% (+ 5.9% in annual terms), which indicates an increase in consumer inflation after the index fell in March and April 2020 against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic. If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast, the dollar is likely to react with a short-term decline. Data better than the forecast will strengthen the dollar. Forecast for August: +0.3% and +6.0% (in annual terms), which indicates continued inflationary pressure in the US economy.
Wednesday, September 14
06:00 GBP Consumer price index. Core Consumer Price Index
Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices for a group of goods and services included in the British consumer basket. The CPI index is a key indicator of inflation. Its publication causes active movement of the pound in the foreign exchange market, as well as the index of the London Stock Exchange FTSE100.
In the previous reporting month (in July), the growth in consumer inflation amounted to +0.6% (+10.1% in annual terms). The data suggests growing inflationary pressures, which is likely to support the pound. A value of the indicator below the forecast/previous value could provoke a weakening of the pound, as low inflation will force the Bank of England to maintain an easy monetary policy.
Forecast for August: +0.6% (+10.2% in annual terms).
Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) is published by the Office for National Statistics and determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services (excluding food and energy) over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the GBP, a negative result weakens it.
In July, Core CPI (in annual terms) increased by +6.2%. It is likely that the publication of the indicator will have a positive impact on the pound in the short term if its value is higher than the forecast and previous values. The indicator reading below the forecast and/or previous values may provoke a weakening of the pound.
Forecast for August: +6.3%.
22:45 NZD New Zealand GDP for the 2nd quarter
The publication of the data will cause increased volatility in the NZD. Considering the recent rise in prices for commodities and agricultural products (especially for dairy products, which are the most important component of New Zealand exports), and the fact that New Zealand has been the least affected by the coronavirus pandemic compared to other major economies, it is likely that New Zealand’s Q2 GDP report will come out with positive values.
GDP is expected to grow in the 2nd quarter of 2022 (previous values -0.2%, +3.0%, -3.7%, +2.8%, +1.6%, -1.0% , +13.9%, -11%, -1.2%, +0.1%). Previous values in annual terms: +1.2%, +3.1%, -0.2%, +2.9%, -0.8%, +0.2%, -11.3%, 0% , +1.7%. The data so far remain conflicting, although they indicate a continued gradual recovery of the New Zealand economy after its fall in the first half of 2020. Data worse than previous values will negatively affect NZD quotes. Forecast for Q2 2022: +0.8% (-0.2% YoY).
Thursday, September 15
01:30 AUD Employment rate. Unemployment rate
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australian citizens. The growth of the indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. A high value is positive for the AUD, while a low value is negative. Previous values of the indicator: -40,900 in July, +88,400 in June, +60,600 in May, +4,000 in April, +17,900 in March, +77,400 in February, +12,900 in January 2022.
Also at the same time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate – an indicator that assesses the ratio of the unemployed population to the total number of able-bodied citizens. The growth of the indicator indicates the weakness of the labor market, which leads to a weakening of the national economy. The decrease in the indicator is a positive factor for the AUD.
Forecast: Unemployment in Australia remained at its lowest level in August at 3.4% (against 3.4% in July, 3.5% in June, 3.9% in May and April, 4.0% in March and February , 4.2% in January) approaching pre-coronavirus levels, and employment rose by another +50,000 Australian workers.
The RBA officials have repeatedly stated that in addition to the situation in international trade, the Australian economy and the central bank’s monetary policy plans are affected by indicators of the level of debts and household spending, growth in wages of workers, as well as the state of the country’s labor market. If the values of the indicators turn out to be worse than the forecast, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term. Better-than-expected data will strengthen the AUD in the short term.
12:30 USD Retail sales. Retail control group
This report (Retail Sales) reflects the total sales of retailers of all sizes and types. The change in retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator and data may be heavily revised in the future. A high result strengthens the US dollar, a low result weakens. A relative decrease in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the dollar, and an increase in the indicator will have a positive effect on the USD. In the previous month (July), the value of the indicator was 0% (after +0.8%, -0.1%, +0.7%, +1.4%, +0.8%, +4.9% in the previous months of 2022). Forecast for August: 0%.
Retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending in the US showing the change in retail sales. The Retail Reference Group measures volume across the entire retail industry and is used to calculate price indices for most products. A high result strengthens the US dollar, and vice versa, a weak report weakens the dollar. A slight increase in indicators is unlikely to accelerate the growth of the dollar. Data worse than previous period +0.8%, +0.7%, -0.3%, +0.5%, +1.1%, -0.9%, +6.7% in January 2022 ) can negatively affect the dollar in the short term.
Friday, September 16
02:00 CNY Retail sales index
The Retail Sales Index is released monthly by China’s National Bureau of Statistics and evaluates the total volume of retail sales and cash generated. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and economic well-being and reflects the state of the retail sector in the near term. The growth of the index is usually a positive factor for the CNY; a decrease in the indicator will negatively affect the CNY. The previous value of the index (in annual terms) was +2.7% (after an increase of +8% in the last months of 2019 and a fall of -20.5% in February 2020).
Outlook: In August 2022, China’s retail sales grew by +4.0% (y-o-y). This is positive data after a contraction in previous months, which indicates an acceleration in the pace of recovery after a strong fall in February-March 2020. If the data turns out to be weaker, the CNY may weaken.
14:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (preliminary release)
This indicator reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates growth in the economy, while a low level indicates stagnation. Previous values of the indicator: 58.2 in August, 51.5 in July, 50.0 in June, 58.4 in May, 65.2 in April, 59.4 in March, 62.8 in February, 67.2 in January 2022. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the USD, and a decrease in the value will weaken the dollar. The data shows uneven recovery of this indicator, which is negative for the USD. Data worse than previous values may have a negative impact on the dollar in the short term. September forecast: 59.8.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
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