Economic calendar for the week 03.01.2022 – 09.01.2022

Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (03.01.2022 – 09.01.2022)

The last trading week of 2021 has ended. On Saturday, January 1, the new year 2022 begins. Despite the deteriorating epidemiological situation and the turbulent political situation in some regions of the world (due to the emergence of a new strain of coronavirus – omicron – and new lockdowns in different regions of the world), investors are ending the outgoing year on a positive note. Major US and many global stock indices hit new all-time highs in 2021. The past week, despite its shortness in view of the celebration of the New Year, was no exception: most of the world stock indices returned to the zone of absolute records, and the American S&P 500 index and the British FTSE 100 reached new record levels.

Oil and other energy prices also maintain positive dynamics against the backdrop of positive investor sentiment, rising stock indices, and amid expectations of a cold winter in Europe and the United States and supply disruptions.

The dollar is likely to resume growth early next year, aided by the Fed’s policy of reducing stimulus and withdrawing from the quantitative easing program in March 2022.

On the last shortened trading week, very few important macro indicators were released.

Next week, financial market participants will pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics from Germany, US, Eurozone, and Canada. The most important events of the coming week are the publication of the monthly report from the US labor market and the OPEC+ meeting, which will decide on the volume of oil production and supply in the coming months.

It should also be noted that in the first days of the new year, new trends and long-term trends often emerge.

*during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be canceled

**GMT time

Monday, January 3

No important macro statistics scheduled to be released.

Tuesday, January 4

07:00 EUR Retail sales in Germany

Retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany showing changes in retail sales. A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it. Forecast: -0.5% in November against -0.3% (-2.9% yoy) in October, -2.5% (-0.9% yoy) in September, +1.1 % (+0.4% y / y) in August, -5.1% (-0.3% y / y) in July, +4.2% (+6.2% y / y) in June, +4.2% (-2.4% yoy) in May, -2.0% (+4.4% yoy) in April, +7.7% (+11% yoy) in March, +1.2% (-9.0% yoy) in February, -4.5% (-8.7% yoy) in January.

The data indicate the instability of the recovery of this sector of the German economy due to lockdowns. Better-than-expected data is likely to have a positive effect on the euro, but in the short term.

15:00 USD Manufacturing PMI (from ISM)

Published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of the health of the US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the USD, one below 50 as negative for the US dollar. Forecast: 60.2 in December (against 61.1 in November, 60.8 in October, 61.1 in September, 59.9 in August, 59.5 in July, 60.6 in June, 61.2 in May , 60.7 in April, 64.7 in March, 60.8 in February, 58.7 in January, 60.7 in December). The index is above the 50 level and has a relatively high value, which is likely to support the dollar. Data above 50 indicates an acceleration of activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. If the indicator drops below the forecast, and especially below the value of 50, the dollar may sharply weaken in the short term.

Wednesday, January 5

13:15 USD ADP National Employment Report

Typically, the ADP’s private sector employment report has a strong impact on the market and dollar quotes. An increase in the value of this indicator has a positive effect on the dollar. The US private sector workforce growth is expected to be +438,000 in December (against the growth of 534,000 in November, 571,000 in October, 568,000 in September, 374,000 in August, 330,000 in July, 692,000 in June, 978,000 in May, 742,000 in April, 517,000 in March, 117,000 in February, 174,000 in January, a drop of -123,000 in December). The relative growth of the indicator may have a positive effect on the dollar quotes, while the relative decline in the indicator has a negative effect. The market reaction may be negative, and the dollar will decline if the data is also worse than forecast.

Millions of Americans have previously been laid off due to the coronavirus pandemic and related quarantine measures. The bulk of layoffs were concentrated in tourism and retail. Other important sectors of the economy were also affected. ADP previously reported that the most significant drop in employment was recently noted in the construction and financial services sectors.

Although the ADP report does not directly correlate with the official US Labor Department data, which will be released on Friday, the ADP report is often a harbinger of it, having a noticeable impact on the market.

19:00 USD Minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC minutes)

The publication of the minutes is extremely important for determining the course of the current Fed policy and the prospects for raising interest rates in the United States. The volatility of trading in financial markets during the publication of the minutes usually increases, since the text often contains either changes or clarifying details regarding the results of the last FOMC Fed meeting.

Following the meeting that ended on December 16, the Fed leaders decided to accelerate the reduction in asset purchases in order to complete the QE program in March 2022 and begin raising interest rates. Fed officials plan to raise interest rates three times in 2022.

The soft tone of the minutes will have a positive effect on stock indices and negatively on the US dollar. Tough rhetoric of the Fed leaders regarding the prospects for monetary policy will push the dollar to further growth.

Thursday, January 6

13:00 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany (final edition)

This index is published by the EU Statistical Office and is calculated on the basis of a statistical method agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative one weakens it.

Previous indicator values: +6.0% in November, +4.6% in October, +4.1% in September, +3.4% in August, +3.1% in July, +2.1% in June, +2.4% in May, +2.1% in April, +2.0% in March, +1.6% in January and February, -0.7% in December and negative values ​​in the second half of 2020 years (in annual terms). If the data for December turns out to be better than the previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro. The data suggests increasing inflationary pressures in Germany. Data worse than the previous value will negatively affect the euro. Forecast: +5.6% in December (against preliminary estimates of +6.0%).

15:00 USD Services PMI (from ISM)

This indicator assesses the state of the services sector in the US economy. These services sectors (as opposed to the manufacturing sector) have practically no impact on the country’s GDP.

A result above 50 is seen as positive for the USD. Forecast for December: 67.0 (after rising to 69.1 in November), which is likely to generally have a positive effect on the USD, despite the relative decline in the indicator. However, a deeper relative decline in the index, and especially below 50, may negatively affect the dollar in the short term.

Friday, January 7

10:00 EUR Consumer price index. Core CPI (preliminary release)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by Eurostat and measures the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in purchasing habits. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative one weakens it. At the end of 2020, the CPI index fell by -0.3%, which indicates low inflationary pressures and even a slowdown in inflation. Forecast for December 2021: +4.7% (YoY) against +4.9% in November, +4.1% in October, +3.4% in September, +1.9% in June, +2.0% in May, +1.3% in March, +0.9% in January and February. If the data turns out to be worse than forecast, the euro may fall sharply in the short term. Data better than the forecast and / or the previous value may strengthen the euro in the short term. As a reminder, the ECB’s target consumer inflation rate is slightly below 2.0%.

Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services for a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy have been excluded from this indicator to provide a more accurate estimate. A high result strengthens the EUR, while a low result weakens it. In November 2021, Core CPI grew by +2.6%, +2.0% in October, +1.9% in September, +0.9% in June, +1.0% in May, +0.7% in April (YoY) after more modest values ​​of +0.2% between September and December 2020. If the data for December turn out to be worse than the previous value or forecast, this may negatively affect the euro. If the data turn out to be better than the forecast or the previous value, the euro is likely to respond with an increase in quotations, but only in the short term. Core inflation in the Eurozone remains low, which is a negative factor for the euro. Forecast for December: +2.3%.

10:00 EURRetail sales in the Eurozone

Retail sales is a major consumer spending indicator that shows the change in retail sales. A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it. Forecast for November: -0.5% (+5.6% yoy) against +0.2% (+1.4% yoy) in October, -0.3% (+2.5% yoy) in annual terms) in September, +0.3% (+0% in annual terms) in August, -2.3% (+3.1% in annual terms) in July, +1.5% (+5.0 % in annual terms) in June, +4.6% (+9.0% in annual terms) in May, -3.1% and +23.9% (in annual terms) in March, +3.0% and -2.9% (annualized) in February, -5.9% and -6.4% (annualized) in January. The data suggests that, despite the rise in indices, retail sales have not yet reached pre-coronavirus levels after a sharp drop in March-April 2020, when strict quarantine measures were in force in Europe. Nevertheless, better-than-expected data is likely to have a positive effect on the euro.

13:30 USD Average hourly wages. Non-farm payrolls. Unemployment rate

These are the most important indicators of the state of the labor market in the United States for December. Forecast: +0.4% (against +0.3% in November, +0.4% in October, +0.6% in September and August, +0.4% in July, +0.3% in June , +0.5% in May, +0.7% in April) / +0.400 million (against +0.210 million in November, +0.531 million in October, +0.194 million in September, +0.235 million in August, +0.943 million in July, +0.850 million in June, +0.559 million in May, +0.266 million in April, +0.916 million in March, +0.379 in February, +0.049 million in January, -0.140 million in December, +0.245 million in November, +0.638 million in October, +1.763 million in July and -20.687 million in April 2020) / 4.1% (against 4.2% in November, 4.6% in October, 4.8% in September, 5, 2% in August, 5.4% in July, 5.9% in June, 5.8% in May, 6.1% in April, 6.0% in March, 6.2% in February, 6.3 % in January, 6.7% in December and November, 6.9% in October, 13.3% in May and 14.7% in April 2020), respectively.

In general, the indicators can be described as encouraging. The data speaks of continued improvement in the US labor market after plummeting in the first half of 2020. Prior to the coronavirus, the US labor market remained strong, signaling the stability of the American economy and supporting dollar quotes.

It is often difficult to predict the market reaction to the publication of indicators, because many indicators for previous periods are subject to revision. Now it will be even more difficult to do this, because the economic situation in the United States and many other large economies remains controversial due to the coronavirus. In any case, when data from the US labor market is published, a surge in volatility is expected in trading not only in USD, but throughout the entire financial market. The most cautious investors might choose to stay out of the market during this time frame.

13:30 CAD Unemployment rate in Canada

Statistics Canada is to publish data on the country’s labor market for December. Unemployment has risen in Canada in recent months, including amid massive business closures due to coronavirus and layoffs. Unemployment rose from the usual 5.6% – 5.7% to 7.8% in March and already up to 13.7% in May 2020. If unemployment continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data is better than the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the CAD, an increase in unemployment is a negative factor. In November, unemployment was at the level of 6.0% (against 6.7% in October, 6.9% in September and August, 7.5% in July, 7.8% in June, 8.2% in May, 8 , 1% in April, 7.5% in March, 8.2% in February, 9.4% in January, 8.8% in December, 8.6% in November). Forecast for December: 6.6%.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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