Market players had another eventful day, as they juggled top-tier inflation releases and government budget announcements while tariffs jitters popped back in the scene.

Data from the U.S. economy turned out mostly better than expected, but asset classes had mixed reactions to the numbers.

Here are the latest headlines and economic updates you need to know.

Headlines:

• Australia CPI for February 2025: 2.4% y/y (2.6% y/y forecast; 2.5% y/y previous)
• Japan Leading Indicators Index for January 2025: 108.3 (108.0 forecast; 108.3 previous)
• U.K. CPI for February 2025: 0.4% m/m (0.6% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous); 2.8% y/y (3.0% y/y forecast; 3.0% y/y previous); Core CPI: 0.4% m/m (0.4% m/m forecast; -0.4% m/m previous); 3.5% y/y as expected
• U.K. Retail Price Index growth rate for February 2025: 0.6% m/m (0.7% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous); 3.4% y/y (3.5% y/y forecast; 3.6% y/y previous)
• U.K. government budget statement highlighted deteriorating fiscal outlook, but no further tax increases announced
• France Consumer Confidence for March 2025: 92.0 (94.0 forecast; 93.0 previous)
• Canada Wholesale Sales growth rate for February 2025: 0.4% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; 1.2% m/m previous)
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders for February 2025: 0.9% m/m (-1.2% m/m forecast; 3.1% m/m previous); Core Durable Goods Orders: 0.7% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous)
• FOMC official Kashkari: Current market shift on tariffs uncertainty seems worse than pandemic era
• FOMC official Musalem: Inflation may remain above the 2% target or even rise further in the near term as second-round effects take hold
• U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for March 21, 2025: -3.34M (1.75M previous)
• BOC Summary of Deliberations revealed that policymakers hesitated to cut interest rates in March decision, supporting chances of an April hold

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Markets spent most of the Asian trading session chillin’ in ranges, with Treasury yields edging steadily higher ahead of top-tier releases. 10-year U.S. bond yields sustained their climb upon seeing upbeat U.S. durable goods orders data later in the day, closing out with a 0.90% gain while the dollar also drew support.

U.S. equity indices didn’t react so positively to the numbers, though, as the S&P 500 index took a nasty tumble to close 1.55% in the red while the Nasdaq slumped 2.04%. Tariffs jitters are being blamed for the turn in risk sentiment, as investors caught wind of Trump’s plan to impose much higher trade levies on auto imports.

Crude oil, which had already been cruising higher during the London session, found additional support from the surprise reduction of 3.3 million barrels in EIA inventories suggesting stronger demand conditions. Although the commodity gave up some ground ahead of Trump’s speech, it still managed to close 0.78% higher for the day.

Surprisingly, gold barely picked up on trade-related safe-haven flows as the precious metal even closed 0.05% in the red while dollar strength prevailed. Bitcoin also found itself on the losing end after falling through the $87,500 support zone and dipping back to the $86,000 region before trimming its losses by session’s end.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView

Currency traders had plenty of market updates to chew on, including Australian inflation data and U.K. CPI figures which all turned out weaker than expected.

Australia’s headline annual CPI fell from 2.5% to 2.4% in February, likely keeping the RBA dovish in their next policy meeting and leading to a sharp drop for AUD/USD during the release. However, the Aussie quickly got back on its feet and even staged a rally, along with the Kiwi, as some risk-on flows were in play during the Asian session.

Meanwhile, the U.K. headline CPI fell from 3.0% to 2.8% year-on-year in February instead of holding steady, dragging GBP/USD lower ahead of the U.K. spring budget statement. The announcement acknowledged deteriorating fiscal conditions since October last year but stopped short of announcing tax hikes – much to the relief of pound bulls.

Over in the U.S., the durable goods orders report churned out better than expected results, with the headline reading up 0.9% month-on-month instead of the projected 1.1% slump while the core reading showed a 0.7% gain versus the expected 0.2% monthly uptick.

Fed officials had mixed rhetoric during their own testimonies, with Kashkari sounding more cautious about economic shocks from trade troubles and Musalem highlighting second-round upside effects on inflation.

As a result, USD recovered back to positive territory against higher-yielding currencies and extended its gains versus the euro leading up to Trump’s speech, as traders anticipated another round of tariffs threats.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

• BOE MPC member Dhingra’s testimony at 8:30 am GMT
• ECB official Buch’s speech at 9:00 am GMT
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for March 22, 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Goods Trade Balance at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Final GDP q/q for Q4 2024 at 12:30 pm GT
• U.S. GDP Price Index q/q at 12:30 pm GMT
• ECB official Guindos’s spech at 1:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Pending Home Sales at 2:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 3:00 pm GMT
• ECB official Schnabel’s speech at 5:40 pm GMT
• ECB President Lagarde’s speech at 6:05 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Balance Sheet at 8:30 pm GMT
• Fed official Barkin’s speech at 8:30 pm GMT
• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 9:00 pm GMT
• Japan National Core CPI at 11:30 pm GMT
• Tokyo Headline and Core CPI at 11:30 pm GMT
• BOJ Summary of Opinions at 11:50 pm GMT

It’s gonna be a New York session for the U.S. dollar, as Uncle Sam has the core PCE price index (read: Fed’s preferred inflation measure) and final GDP reading up for release, along with the weekly initial jobless claims report. Phew!

After that, the spotlight shifts to the Japanese yen with the Tokyo and national inflation figures lined up, followed by the minutes of the latest BOJ monetary policy meeting.

Don’t forget to check out our brand new Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!