Market participants kicked the week off in a positive mood, helped partly by talks of a more measured U.S. tariffs implementation plan.

Risk rallies carried on until the New York session, propping stocks and crude oil higher, while the dollar also found support from PMI readings.

Here are the latest updates you need to know and how asset classes fared.

Headlines:

• Over the weekend, a WSJ report suggested that the Trump administration is considering targeted reciprocal tariffs instead of broad industry-specific ones planned for April 2
• U.S. and Ukrainian officials held a “productive and focused” talk in Riyadh to end Russia’s invasion
• Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2025: 52.6 (50.7 forecast; 50.4 previous)
• Australia S&P Global Services PMI Flash for March 2025: 51.2 (50.9 forecast; 50.8 previous)
• Reuters reported OPEC+ will likely to proceed with output increases but also force some members to reduce pumping in May
• Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2025: 48.3 (49.4 forecast; 49.0 previous)
• Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash for March 2025: 49.5 (52.9 forecast; 53.7 previous)
• Swiss Current Account for December 31, 2024: 9.8B (7.5B forecast; 6.3B previous)
• France HCOB Services PMI Flash for March 2025: 46.6 (46.8 forecast; 45.3 previous)
• France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2025: 48.9 (46.5 forecast; 45.8 previous)
• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2025: 48.3 (48.0 forecast; 46.5 previous)
• Germany HCOB Services PMI Flash for March 2025: 50.2 (51.5 forecast; 51.1 previous)
• Euro area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2025: 48.7 (48.3 forecast; 47.6 previous)
• Euro area HCOB Services PMI Flash for March 2025: 50.4 (51.1 forecast; 50.6 previous)
• U.K. S&P Global Services PMI Flash for March 2025: 53.2 (51.1 forecast; 51.0 previous)
• U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2025: 44.6 (47.0 forecast; 46.9 previous)
• Canada CFIB Business Barometer for March 2025: 25.0 (49.0 forecast; 49.5 previous)
• Canada Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel for February 2025: -0.2% (-0.3% forecast; 1.7% previous)
• Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February 2025: 0.18 (0.08 forecast; -0.03 previous)
• S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2025: 49.8 (52.1 forecast; 52.7 previous)
• S&P Global U.S. Services PMI Flash for March 2025: 54.3 (51.1 forecast; 51.0 previous)
• Trump says U.S. will impose 25% tariffs on countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, SP 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Investors woke up on the right side of the bed at the start of the week, as risk assets like crypto and equity futures started off in the green. This upbeat sentiment likely came from weekend reports suggesting that the Trump administration is mulling a more measured tariffs implementation versus the broad industry-targeted ones originally planned.

Geopolitical tensions also seemed to be easing, as officials from the U.S. and Ukraine had “productive and focused” talks in Riyadh aiming for a broader ceasefire deal with Russia. Gold tried to hold its ground during the Asian and London sessions but soon caved to profit-taking among safe-havens as risk-taking accelerated later in the day.

Crude oil, which had a bit of a shaky start, soon joined in the risk-on bandwagon on rumors that the OPEC+ could convince some member nations to scale back production in May, despite likely proceeding with its planned output hike next month. Trump’s threats to impose 25% tariffs on countries buying oil from Venezuela also appeared to prop the commodity higher.

Bitcoin was on a tear throughout the day, surging from the $84K levels up to $88K on improved market sentiment. Treasury yields were also on a steady upward trajectory, as investors likely dumped government bonds while pursuing riskier holdings. The S&P 500 index closed 1.66% higher, with rallies led by tech sector shares.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView

Dollar pairs had a mixed start, with  the U.S. currency raking in gains against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc from the get-go while giving up ground to higher-yielding counterparts. Improvements in Australia’s flash manufacturing and services PMIs helped keep the Aussie afloat during the Asian session, even though the Kiwi saw some losses.

Flash PMI readings from the eurozone came in mixed, with the manufacturing sectors of Germany and France printing better than expected results in March while the German flash services PMI fell short of estimates AND saw a downgrade to the previous reading.

Over in the U.S., stronger than expected flash services PMI helped buoy the dollar back to positive territory against most of its peers, except against the stronger Canadian dollar. Expectations that Trump could shift to targeted reciprocal tariffs appeared to provide some relief for CAD, along with the rally in crude oil prices during the U.S. session.

By session’s end, the dollar closed significantly higher versus the yen (+0.87%) while holding on to marginal gains versus EUR (0.13%), NZD (0.10%) and CHF (0.09%). USD closed in the red versus the rest of its peers, most notably against CAD (-0.26%).

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

• BOJ Core CPI y/y at 5:00 am GMT
• Germany Ifo Business Climate for March 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
• U.K. CBI Distributive Trades for March 2025 at 11:00 am GMT
• U.S. Fed Kugler Speech at 12:40 pm GMT
• U.S. House Price Index for January 2025 at 1:00 pm GMT
• U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January 2025 at 1:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Williams Speech at 1:05 pm GMT
• U.S. New Home Sales MoM for February 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
• U.S. CB Consumer Confidence for March 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
• API U.S. Crude Oil Stock Change at 8:30 pm GMT

There’s not much in the way of top-tier market catalyst in the upcoming trading sessions, although it could be worth keeping tabs on the U.S. CB consumer confidence index which is considered a leading spending indicator.

Apart from that, make sure to keep your eyes and ears peeled for Fed policy commentary from officials Kugler and Williams during their testimonies, as well as additional tariffs-related announcements from the Trump administration.

Don’t forget to check out our brand new Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!