Risk assets rebounded on Tuesday, thanks to a mix of bargain hunting and easing global trade and Fed independence concerns.

Which headlines moved the major assets around? Here are the updates from the latest trading sessions!

Headlines:

• New Zealand trade surplus for March: 970M NZD (80M NZD forecast, 392M NZD previous)
• BOJ core CPI for March: 2.2% y/y (2.4% forecast, 2.2% previous)
• IMF cuts 2025 US growth forecast on trade tensions
• Canada producer prices index for March: 4.7% y/y (4.5% y/y forecast; 4.9% y/y previous); 0.5% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; 0.4% m/m previous)
• Canada raw materials prices for March: 3.9% y/y (6.5% y/y forecast; 9.3% y/y previous); -1.0% m/m (-0.5% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m previous)
• Euro Area flash consumer confidence for April: -16.7 (-15.2 forecast; -14.5 previous)
• ECB President Lagarde said the disinflation process is “nearing completion,” and that ECB’s next decisions would be “data dependent to the extreme”
• U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index for April: -13.0 (-5.0 forecast; -4.0 previous)
• U.S. API crude oil stock change for the week ending April 18: -4.57M (2.4M previous)
• US Treasury Department sanctioned Iranian LPG magnate for shipping Iranian LPG and crude oil to foreign markets
• Politico reports US is “close” on trade deal with Japan and India, but warns they may be light on specifics
• President Donald Trump said he has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Global markets rebounded sharply on Tuesday. Bargain hunting after Monday’s selloff may have contributed to the bounce, with investors taking advantage of lower prices. European traders returning from Easter holidays also added liquidity to markets that had been thinly traded.

The S&P 500 surged 2.51%, with the Dow and Nasdaq both gaining over 2.5%. European markets also finished higher despite lingering trade concerns.

The recovery was primarily driven by comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at a closed-door investor summit hosted by JPMorgan Chase. Bessent indicated that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and predicted “de-escalation” in the “very near future,” though he cautioned negotiations hadn’t started and would be a “slog.”

Other reports suggested progress with Japan and India, though these may only be preliminary understandings rather than finalized agreements. Later, Trump eased market fears by stating he had “no intention” of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, walking back his previous criticism.

Gold initially touched a new record high of $3,499 before retreating on profit-taking. The 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.40% as bond markets found greater stability. Oil rebounded with WTI crude gaining 2.0% to $64.30, supported by new US sanctions against an Iranian petroleum magnate. Bitcoin surged 5% above $90,000, its highest level since March.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView

The dollar clawed back some ground on Tuesday as worries over trade tensions and Fed independence cooled off. It started out on the back foot, extending Monday’s selloff in early Asian trade, with selling pressure picking up as Hong Kong and Chinese markets opened.

USD/JPY took the brunt of it, sliding below 140 for the first time since September 2024 just as the Bank of Japan’s core CPI data hit. But things turned around in the European session, led by USD/CHF pushing above both its moving averages and setting the tone for a broader recovery.

The bullish momentum picked up in New York after Treasury Secretary Bessent told investors he expects de-escalation with China, even if getting there will be a slog. The real turning point came when Trump said he had no plans to fire Fed Chair Powell, sparking a sharp rally across major dollar pairs.

Meanwhile, EUR turned notably lower during the US session, pressured by ECB President Lagarde’s comments that the eurozone disinflation process was “nearing completion,” suggesting limited further rate cuts.

The Greenback posted solid gains against the euro, franc, and yen, while USD/CAD barely budged as rising oil prices gave the Loonie a bit of a lift.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

• U.K. public sector net borrowing ex banks for March 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
• Germany HCOB manufacturing and services PMI flash at 7:30 am GMT
• Euro area HCOB manufacturing and services PMI flash at 8:00 am GMT
• U.K. S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI flash at 8:30 am GMT
• Euro Area trade balance for February 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
• U.S. final building permits (final) for March 2025
• Canada new housing price index for March 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• Federal Reserve member Goolsbee speech at 1:00 pm GMT
• Federal Reserve member Beth speech at 1:00 pm GMT
• Federal Reserve member Waller speech at 1:35 pm GMT
• U.S. S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI flash at 1:45 pm GMT
• U.S. new home sales for March 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
• U.S. EIA crude oil stocks change for the week ending April 18 at 2:30 pm GMT
• BOE member Bailey speech at 4:30 pm GMT
• BOE member Breeden speech at 6:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Beige Book at 6:00 pm GMT
• ECB member Lane speech at 7:15 pm GMT
• ECB member Cipollone speech at 7:45 pm GMT

The European session is packed with PMI releases from Germany, the euro area, and the U.K., which could move the euro and pound if they show unexpected strength or weakness in business activity.

In the U.S., focus shifts to U.S. PMI data, new home sales, and speeches from Fed officials that may hint at the central bank’s next move, while oil traders will be watching the EIA report and dollar traders will keep an ear on the Fed’s Beige Book and any trade talk headlines.

As always, stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!