Cleveland Federal Reserve branch inflation rate indicator surges (again, but more)

The Cleveland Fed’s median PCE inflation rate is rocketing higher, again:

The Cleveland Fed’s median PCE inflation rate is rocketing higher, again:

The Fed branch publishing its inflation indicator ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee beginning its two-day meeting Tuesday 02 November 2021. 

  • The FOMC is expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged
  • also expected to announce plans to phase out its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases by the middle of 2022

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More from the Cleveland Fed, this is helpful to file away if needed:

Median PCE Inflation 

  • Description: We calculate the median PCE inflation rate based on data released in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ monthly Personal Income and Outlays report. 
  • Median PCE inflation is the one-month inflation rate of the component whose expenditure weight is in the 50th percentile of price changes. 
  • Benefits: By omitting outliers (small and large price changes) and focusing on the interior of the distribution of price changes, the median PCE inflation rate can provide a better signal of the underlying inflation trend than either the all-items PCE price index or the PCE price index excluding food and energy (also known as the core PCE price index).

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