China’s economic ‘activity data’ is due on Monday

October data for Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investment is due at 0200 GMT on 15 November 2021 

Industrial Production y/y

  • expected 3.0%, prior was 3.1%

  • The 3% expansion expected would be the slowest since the early 2020 coronavirus contraction. Power shortages and electricity rationing during the month along with higher input costs are key negative influences expected to have constrained production. 

  • PMI data from China for October was in contraction for the official survey (at 49.2) but was better for the Caixin survey (at 50.6)

Industrial
Production YTD y/y

Fixed
Assets (excluding rural) y/y

  • expected 6.2%, prior was 7.3%

  • The property sector turmoil was intense in October and will hold back the result for this  month.

Retail
Sales y/y,

  • expected 3.5%, prior was 4.4%

  • Coronavirus lockdowns will weigh here. Retail, restaurants, bars all feeling the pain.  China also sees massive sales in early November (Singles’ Day) that are likely to have held back retail spending in October. 

Retail
Sales YTD y/y

October data for Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investment is due at 0200 GMT on 15 November 2021 

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