Canada October GDP +0.8% m/m vs +0.8% expected

  • Prior was +0.1% (revised to +0.2%)
  • November flash estimate +0.3% m/m
  • Goods producing +1.6%
  • Services producing +0.6%
  • 17 of 20 industries posted gains in October
  • Construction +1.6% led by residential construction

That’s a strong start to Q4 but virus curbs will be a damper late in the quarter. A big driver in October was a rebound in auto manufacturing after some bottlenecks were worked out. Motor vehicle manufacturing rose 47.8% boost all durable manufacturing by 1.9%.

Canadian GDP will likely recoup the pandemic decline in Q1 but it will take beyond 2022 to get back to trend.

Canada total GDP

Oil and gas extraction rose 1.5% and has risen in 5 of the past 6 months to a record contribution. Broader mining is also a growing contributor and should continue to be a tailwind.

Canada GDP by industry

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