Synopsis:

Barclays forecasts a deceleration in October’s nonfarm payrolls to 125k, down from September’s 254k, with employment impacted by the Boeing strike and recent hurricanes. Wage growth is expected to remain steady, while the unemployment rate may tick up due to temporary disruptions.

Key Points:

• Nonfarm payrolls projected to rise by 125k, with private payrolls increasing by 100k as labor disruptions impact the data.
• Average hourly earnings growth anticipated at 0.4% m/m (4.1% y/y), with the workweek expected to decline slightly to 34.1 hours.
• Unemployment rate forecasted to increase to 4.2%, partly due to temporary effects from strikes and hurricanes.

Conclusion:

Barclays expects October’s jobs report to reflect temporary slowdowns from external factors, with a moderate payroll increase and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate. Despite these impacts, wage growth remains steady, indicating underlying resilience in the labor market.

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