- The Australian Unemployment Rate is foreseen unchanged at 4.2% in August.
- Employment Change is expected at 25K, more than halving the 58.2K posted in July.
- AUD/USD stands below 0.6800, with a bullish bias in the Federal Reserve’s aftermath.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the monthly employment report at 1:30 GMT on Thursday. The country is expected to have added 25K new positions in August, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen to remain steady at 4.2%. The Australian Dollar (AUD) heads into the event with a firmer tone against its United States (US) rival, with AUD/USD hovering around the 06770 level.
The ABS reports Employment Change separating full-time from part-time positions. According to its own definitions, full-time jobs imply working 38 hours per week or more and usually include additional benefits, but they mostly represent consistent income. On the other hand, part-time employment generally means higher hourly rates but lacks consistency and benefits. That’s why full-time jobs have more weight than part-time ones when setting an AUD directional path.
Back in July, the monthly employment report showed that Australia managed to create 60.5K full-time jobs while losing 2.3K part-time positions, resulting in a net Employment Change of 58.2K. The Unemployment Rate, in the meantime, rose to 4.2% from 4.1% prior.
Australian Unemployment Rate seen stable, but high in August
As previously noted, financial markets anticipate the Unemployment Rate to be at 4.2%, unchanged on a monthly basis. Job creation is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace.
The Australian Unemployment rate jumped to 4.2% in July, which seems good news from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as it’s a sign of a loosening labor market, which eventually will back up an interest rate cut.
The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since lifting it to such a level in November 2023, being among those central banks that show no interest in trimming interest rates.
And there is a good reason: The Australian inflation rate rose to 3.8% year-on-year (YoY) in the second quarter of the year, matching expectations yet higher than the 3.6% posted in Q1. It was the first acceleration in the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) since 2022 amid higher inflation for both goods and services.
Indeed, growth remains sluggish in the country. According to the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release, the economy grew a modest 1% YoY in the second quarter of the year. Taking the 2023-24 financial year as a whole, the economy expanded 1.5%, the weakest since the 1991-92 year, excluding the 0.3% contraction during the pandemic-disrupted year, the ABS stated.
Finally, it is worth noting that RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that market expectations for an interest rate cut “don’t align” with the Board’s thinking. Even further, Bullock noted she is doing her job, which is to tame inflation, suggesting policymakers are not putting economic performance above their mandate.
“If the economy evolves broadly as anticipated, the Board does not expect that it will be in a position to cut rates in the near term,” Bullock added.
When will the Australian employment report be released, and how could it affect AUD/USD?
The ABS will publish the August employment report early on Thursday. As previously stated, Australia is expected to have added 25K new job positions in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.2%. Finally, the Participation Rate is expected to hold at 67.1%.
The AUD/USD pair trades near the 0.6800 price zone ahead of the event and following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision. The US central bank went for an aggressive 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut, with the overall decision being more dovish than anticipated. Financial markets welcomed the news and sold the Greenback, while stock markets rose, underpinning AUD/USD.
After the dust settled, stocks trimmed Fed-inspired gains and helped the US Dollar to recover against its major rivals. From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The AUD/USD pair is bullish and trades near its recent highs at 0.6823. The pair can reach the level on a better-than-anticipated August employment report. December high at 0.6870 is the next level to watch and a potential bullish target, although the figures really have to rock markets to spur such a rally.”
Bednarik adds: “AUD/USD will likely trade on mood. DIscouraging employment figures may have a negative effect on the AUD/USD pair. Support can be found in the 0.6740 region ahead of the 0.6700 threshold.”
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate s.a.
The Unemployment Rate, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the rate increases, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market and a weakness within the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an increase is seen as bearish.