Australian Q3 GDP data due today – contraction expected (but it doesn’t matter)

Coming up at 0030 GMT, Australia economic growth data for the third quarter of 2021:

Snippet via NAB:

  • Whether Q3 GDP prints at -3.3% as we expect is a moot point with the Q3 GDP figures firmly in the rear vision mirror given it references a period when NSW, VIC and the ACT were in lockdown. 
  • Since then activity has rebounded sharply with the level of payroll jobs now 0.8% higher than they were at 26 June 2021, which immediately preceded the initial Sydney lockdown. 

And, looking ahead, a reason to be a little wary of the expected Q4 bounce:

  • The emergence of the Omicron variant though is a significant risk to the rebound and it is too early to assess how severe the variant is and whether current vaccines provide a high level of protection.

As an aside …. its the first official day of summer in Australia:

Coming up at 0030 GMT, Australia economic growth data for the third quarter of 2021:

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