I posted a preview of the labour market report earlier:
A snippet now from Westpac, analysts at the bank are at odds with the consensus, forecasting a drop in employment on the month, although adding the risk is to the upside:
- The various leading indicators including job ads, unemployment expectations and the business surveys (as summarised in our Jobs Index) remained firmed during the most recent lockdowns, strengthening further as NSW started to reopen in Oct. Our -50k forecast is balancing the start of a recovery in NSW vs ongoing lockdown drags in Vic. Risks are to the upside.
Via National Australia Bank:
- Our economists note that the key message from leading indicators is that we should expect a sharp rebound in Australia’s labour market in coming weeks. NAB sees aggregate employment back to pre-lockdown levels by the end of the year. The timing of that showing up in measured employment though is less clear.
- We look for the start of the rebound to have occurred in October in NSW and pencil in +80k for employment ( market +50k) and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.6% ( market 4.8%)
And, from SocGen:
- We expect a significant rebound in employment numbers for the month of October (+80K), as the economy reopened in the two major cities of Sydney and Melbourne.
- However, the unemployment rate is likely to rise a bit (4.8%) despite the recovery in employment, as the participation rate will probably show a sizeable increase (65%).