Following the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) release of its Q2 2024 Quarterly Report, analysts of local and foreign banks estimated the central bank would not pause lowering rates for the remainder of the year.
Economists at Banorte expect a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut in September and estimate that interest rates will end at 10.25%.
Citibanamex expects a quarter of percentage rate cuts in September, November, and December, with Banxico’s reference rate hitting 10.00%. It cites that the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle would ease pressures on the Mexican Peso, giving the Mexican central bank a green light to lower borrowing costs.
In Monex, they expect the bank’s reference rate to end the year at 10.25%, expecting cuts in September. The November and December meetings are live.
Goldman Sachs anticipates rate cuts of 25 bps each in the three remaining meetings of the year, bringing the interest rate down to 10.00% by year’s end.
Banxico FAQs
The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.
The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.
Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.