Various reports suggest that Israel won’t strike Iran’s oil infrastructure in retaliation for recent strikes.

The latest report cited officials from the Biden administration, speaking anonymously to the Associated Press, was said that Israel has pledged not to attack Iranian oil and nuclear sites. However, these officials express skepticism about the reliability of Israel’s commitment, suggesting that the assurances may not be entirely dependable.

That said, the oil market has made up its mind and WTI crude oil fell $3.13 to $70.71 today, giving up most of its recent gains and briefly trading below $70.

For the next move in oil, I think we will have to wait for the dust to settle in the Middle East. Aside from that, the focus will be on China and the potential for stimulus. Today, Chinese stocks fell 3-4% on the failure to deliver for the real economy and that certainly isn’t helping crude.